International oil market: International oil market falls
The global oil market fell on Tuesday. Major energy organizations cut demand growth forecasts and warned of a possible supply excess.
Changes in oil prices
WTI: West Texas Intermediate (WTI): WTI for September delivery closed down $1.71, or 2.14 per cent, at $78.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Brent crude: Brent crude for October delivery closed down $1.61, or 1.96 per cent, at $80.69 a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.
OPEC revised forecast
OPEC: For the first time since July 2023, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024 to 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.11 million barrels per day.
International Energy Agency (IEA) report
IEA forecast: On Tuesday, the IEA reported in its latest report that global crude oil demand growth will not exceed 1 million barrels per day this year and next year. This estimate is due to the sluggishness of the global economy.
IEA warning: If OPEC+ gradually restores production capacity from October, global crude oil supply may exceed demand in the fourth quarter. Also, due to increased production by countries like the US and Brazil, there may be an excess of 860,000 barrels of crude oil daily worldwide next year.
Analysis by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
Goldman Sachs: Experts said that despite the ongoing conflict in various places, no major disruptions in crude oil supply have been observed.
Morgan Stanley: Chief Commodities Strategist, Martijn Rates, said that the dynamics of the oil market are transparent with modern technologies, and the assessment of the impacts on supply during past geopolitical conflicts was not clear.