China-Bangladesh Relations: Strategic Shift & India’s Stakes
Professor Mohammad Yunus, the chief advisor to Bangladesh’s interim government, has recently taken another significant step toward strengthening China-Bangladesh relations. At the “China-Bangladesh Investment and Trade Conference” held in Dhaka on Sunday, he openly appealed to Chinese investors and business leaders to invest in Bangladesh on a large scale. Yunus stated that deeper China-Bangladesh relations could elevate Bangladesh’s economy to new heights, as seen in other South Asian countries.
But the question remains: Is Yunus’ growing tilt toward China-Bangladesh relations purely economic, or is there a deeper political and strategic move behind it? Most importantly, what implications does this have for India? Let’s explore this issue in detail and understand why China-Bangladesh relations are significant for India.
Yunus’ China Affinity: Economic Need or Strategic Move?
In his speech, Mohammad Yunus made it clear:
“Bangladesh needs a fresh start, and China-Bangladesh relations can play a key role in that. We want Chinese companies to make Bangladesh their home and turn it into their production hub.”
More than 150 Chinese investors and government representatives attended the conference, including China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Chinese Ambassador to Dhaka Yao Wen. To attract Chinese investors, Yunus proposed appointing special “relationship managers” to assist them with every need. This move is a major indication of a deeper effort to strengthen China-Bangladesh relations.
This is not the first time Yunus has pushed for stronger China-Bangladesh relations. In March 2025, he visited China and met President Xi Jinping. During this visit, he invited Chinese involvement in several major projects, including:
- Teesta River Project: Yunus invited Chinese state-owned companies to invest in this project, which holds great strategic importance for India, as the Teesta River originates in Sikkim and flows through West Bengal into Bangladesh.
- Modernisation of Mongla Port: Yunus sought Chinese assistance for the development of this port.
- Chinese Industrial Zone in Chittagong: Bangladesh plans to further develop the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Chittagong.
- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Yunus also expressed his intent to link China-Bangladesh relations with the BRI to deepen cooperation.
Yunus had also stated that India’s northeastern states are landlocked and that Bangladesh could serve as a strategic bridge for them, a move that could economically benefit China. This remark sparked sharp reactions in India, as it was seen as questioning the sovereignty of India’s northeastern states.
A Wake-Up Call for India: Implications of Strengthening China-Bangladesh Relations
The expanding scope of China-Bangladesh relations poses several concerns for India. Experts believe this is not just about economic cooperation but may also be part of an anti-India strategy.
Professor Emeritus S.D. Muni of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) says:
“Yunus’ government is anti-Sheikh Hasina, and Hasina enjoyed India’s support. Now Yunus wants to align with forces that are against India. China-Bangladesh relations are bringing him both political and economic advantages.”
Defence analyst Dr Smruti S. Pattanaik adds:
“Bangladesh is playing a balancing game. The development of an airport near the Siliguri Corridor (Chicken’s Neck) and involving China in the Teesta project are strategies meant to provoke India.”
The Siliguri Corridor, or “Chicken’s Neck”, is a crucial strategic region that connects mainland India to its northeastern states. If China-Bangladesh relations strengthen further in this area, it could pose a significant security threat to India.
Teesta Project: A Major Blow to India?
The Teesta River project has long been a point of contention between India and Bangladesh. The Sheikh Hasina government had explored cooperation with India on this project, and India had offered its assistance. However, Yunus’ interim government prioritised China-Bangladesh relations and invited China into the project, presenting a new challenge for India.
The Teesta River flows from Sikkim through West Bengal into Bangladesh. Water-sharing disputes have persisted for years. If China-Bangladesh relations continue to deepen around this project, it could threaten India’s regional security and expand China’s influence in South Asia.
China-Bangladesh Relations: Partnership or Debt Trap?
Several experts are warning that the Yunus government must carefully evaluate the strategy behind China-Bangladesh relations. Under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China provides large-scale loans, which it later uses to exert strategic and political pressure.
Dr Smruti S. Pattanaik warns:
“We’ve seen the fate of countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Pakistan. If China-Bangladesh relations turn into a debt trap, China will offer massive loans and then use them to establish strategic and political control.”
S.D. Muni reiterates:
“China doesn’t offer grants — it offers loans, and it insists on repayment. If China-Bangladesh relations proceed in this direction, Bangladesh may lose its strategic autonomy.”
Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port is a stark example, where China took over the port on a 99-year lease in exchange for unpaid loans. A similar situation could arise with Mongla and Chittagong ports in Bangladesh, which would be strategically disadvantageous for India.
Sheikh Hasina vs Yunus: Policy Differences in China-Bangladesh Relations
While Sheikh Hasina’s government also welcomed China-Bangladesh relations, she maintained a balance with India. Hasina accepted Chinese investment for infrastructure and economic development but limited Chinese influence in military and strategic areas. In contrast, Yunus’ interim government appears committed to deepening China-Bangladesh relations.
For instance, Hasina had previously withdrawn the proposal to involve China in the Teesta project under Indian pressure. However, Yunus has now openly invited China to participate, raising concerns in India.
Moreover, Yunus has made multiple controversial statements against India — such as calling India’s northeastern states “landlocked” and describing Bangladesh as the “maritime guardian” of the region. These remarks have been seen in India as challenges to its sovereignty and have fuelled public anger.
Why Is an Interim Government Involved in Strategic Global Policy?
The biggest question is why an interim government — whose primary role is to oversee elections — is formulating long-term strategies on China-Bangladesh relations?
Dr Smruti S. Pattanaik remarks:
“The Yunus government should be focusing on elections, but it is instead making global strategic moves regarding China-Bangladesh relations. This implies that the interim government might not be temporary. India should wait for a democratically elected government in Bangladesh.”
Political instability is rising in Bangladesh, and public dissatisfaction with Yunus is growing. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman are demanding elections by December 2025, while Yunus wants to delay them until June 2026. If elections are not held by December, there are fears of a possible coup.
Impact of China-Bangladesh Relations on India-Bangladesh Ties
India and Bangladesh have long enjoyed strong trade and cultural ties. In 2021-22, bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to nearly USD 18 billion. India has also extended over USD 8 billion in credit and funded 77 high-impact community development projects in Bangladesh.
However, the growing scope of China-Bangladesh relations is creating tensions in this relationship. In April 2025, India withdrew the trans-shipment facility it had provided to Bangladesh, affecting Bangladesh’s trade with the Middle East and Europe. Additionally, India imposed import restrictions on Bangladeshi goods like processed food and ready-made garments.
Yunus’ remarks — such as referring to India’s northeastern states as “landlocked” and calling Bangladesh the region’s “maritime guardian” — have further fuelled discontent in India.
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