- India-US trade surplus may exceed $90 billion annually
- Export capacity to US estimated above $100 billion yearly
- Tariff cuts seen boosting Indian share in US market
- Import growth from US also expected to rise
India US trade surplus: The trade balance between India and the United States may grow rapidly in the coming period. According to a new report by SBI Research, due to a possible sharp rise in exports and structured growth in imports, India’s annual trade surplus may go above 90 billion dollars.
The report said that Indian exporters have the capacity to increase additional exports of up to about 97 billion dollars every year in the top 15 products sent to the United States alone. When other goods are included, this total export capacity can easily exceed 100 billion dollars annually.
SBI Research has described tariff reduction as a major opportunity for Indian exporters. According to it, lowering duties can increase the share of Indian products in the US market, which can lead to rapid expansion in the trade surplus. At present, this surplus was 40.9 billion dollars in the financial year 2025, while between April and December in the financial year 2026 it was recorded at about 26 billion dollars.
According to media reports, the possible jump in exports will also have a positive impact on the country’s economy. It is estimated that this may have a net effect of up to about 1.1 percent on the gross domestic product. Data show that the United States has a share of about 20 percent in India’s total exports, while in imports this share is about 7 percent. In services imports, the US share is around 15 percent.
On the import front also, the US export capacity to India has been estimated at more than 50 billion dollars. India has agreed to reduce or eliminate duties on American industrial goods and several agricultural and food products. In the next five years, India is planning to purchase about 500 billion dollars of American goods, which may lead to an increase of up to about 55 billion dollars in imports.
In some goods, the United States is already a major source of India’s imports. For example, about 90 percent of India’s almond imports come from the US.
According to the report, reduction of duties on selected products may save India about 100 to 150 million dollars in foreign exchange reserves. Overall, due to zero or lower duties on American goods, savings of about 3 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves are estimated, with further gains also expected from import substitution.
Utkarsh works as a Sub-Editor at 1Tak News. Technology and gadgets are his main beats, and he also tracks automobiles. A graduate of Mahatma Gandhi Kashi Vidyapeeth, he began his journalism career in 2023 and has built experience across digital media platforms like 1Tak. Besides technology, he also has considerable experience covering national affairs, politics, research, and international news.
